Weekly Market Update – May 4, 2026

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500  +0.9%  S&P Mid Cap  0.0%  Russell 2000  +0.9% 

MSCI EAFE +0.9%     MSCI EM (0.5%)

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.31% to 4.38%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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Recent News

U.A.E. Leaves OPEC – The United Arab Emirates stated that they plan to leave OPEC on May 1 and begin increasing their oil production thereafter.  In recent years, the U.A.E. has asked for greater flexibility from OPEC to produce more oil.  With the rise of shale oil coming from the U.S., OPEC has seen their influence over global oil prices wane and this move will likely contribute to that decline.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Fed Meeting – While the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday was as expected, with no changes to interest rates, four members dissented on the statement that was issued, the most since 1992.  Three members dissented from the Fed’s message that a rate cut is more likely than a rate hike.  As of Monday morning, the futures market was forecasting one rate hike between now and the end of the year.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, The Wall Street Journal

Powell Decides to Stay – After much consideration, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has decided to stay on the board as a governor after his time as Fed Chair ends, removing one post for President Trump to fill.  Powell remarked that this highly unusual decision was due to his concerns about the legal attacks the Fed has experienced from the Trump administration recently.  His term as governor will conclude in early 2028, at which point Trump can then nominate a new governor.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP – Publicly held U.S. debt now exceeds total GDP.  While debt briefly passed GDP during the pandemic, the U.S. hasn’t had more debt than GDP at the end of a fiscal year since WWII.  As of the end of the quarter, debt stood at $31.27 trillion and GDP stood at $31.22 trillion.  The U.S. now joins France, Italy, Greece, and Japan with its debt-to-GDP ratio above 1.0.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Real GDP – Q1: 2.0% (Reuters Poll est. 2.3%) Q4: 0.5%

Business spending in Q1 surged while consumer spending softened.  Nonresidential fixed investment rose at a 10.4% rate, indicating continued demand from AI.  Consumer spending slowed modestly in Q1 to a 1.6% rate, down from 1.9% in the previous quarter.  Government spending bounced back from a 16% decline in the previous quarter, largely due to the shutdown, to an increase of 9.3%.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Short-Livved – Saudi Arabia is ending its funding for the newly created LIV Golf league that started just four years ago.  It remains to be seen what will happen with current LIV golfers and if they will be able to rejoin the PGA Tour.  Earlier this year, Brooks Koepka was able to rejoin the PGA through a one-time returning member program that could cost him up to $90 million.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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Upcoming Events

5/4 – Notable Earnings Reports: Vertex Pharmaceutical, Palantir

5/5 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: IDEXX, KKR, Pfizer, Waters, Aptiv, PayPal, Fiserv, AMD, Emerson Electric, Occidental Petroleum, Arista Networks, Super Micro Computer

5/6 – Notable Earnings Reports: Disney, CVS Health, Marriott, NRG Energy, Kraft Heinz, Uber, MetLife

5/7 – Notable Earnings Reports: WW Grainger, Becton Dickinson, McDonald’s, Zoetis, Vistra, Expedia, Gilead Sciences, McKesson

5/8 – Jobs Report, Consumer Sentiment

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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