Weekly Market Update – March 9, 2026

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500  (2.0%)  S&P Mid Cap  (4.6%)    Russell 2000  (4.1%) 

MSCI EAFE (6.8%)     MSCI EM (6.9%)   

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 3.96% to 4.13%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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Recent News

Oil Prices Surge – The price of a barrel of oil surged last week by over 25%, ending the week above $90 for the first time since April 2024.  Roughly 20% of oil production travels through the Strait of Hormuz every day, which has seen activity grind to a halt as a result of the conflict in Iran.  In response, producers in the Middle East have been storing oil but some, such as Kuwait, are reporting that they are running out of storage space and have been forced to cut production.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, The Wall Street Journal

Jobs Report – Feb: -92k (Reuters Poll est. 59k) Jan: 126k

The February jobs report showed job losses for the month of 92,000, a surprise drop compared to January’s gain of 126,000 jobs and far below even the lowest estimate from Wall Street economists.  The slowdown in the labor market makes the job of the Federal Reserve even harder as inflation ticks higher with the rise in energy prices.  There is some hope for a jobs rebound next month as part of the decline was due to a large healthcare workers strike during February.  In response to the report, market expectations for the next interest rate cut from the Fed moved up to June from July.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, The Wall Street Journal

Tariff Refunds On Hold – A federal judge ruled on Wednesday that the Trump administration must refund all global tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down last month.  However, on Friday this order was suspended from “immediate compliance” to allow the U.S. Customs and Border Protection time to comply.  The CBP estimated they could begin issuing refunds on roughly $166 billion in late April.  They noted that over 300,000 importers had already made more than 53 million claims as of Wednesday.

Source: CNBC.com, The Wall Street Journal

China Sets Growth Target – China lowered its annual economic growth target from 5% to 4.5%-5.0%, the first cut to growth since 2023.  The new target is the lowest output goal for the country since 1991.  An ongoing real estate crisis and trade difficulties were key reasons behind the weaker forecasted growth.

Source: BBC

Coyote Season – The Forest Preserve District of Cook County states that everybody in Chicagoland lives within the territory of a family group of coyotes and residents may notice an uptick in sightings in the coming weeks as we enter coyote mating season.  While it’s very rare for a human to be bitten by a coyote, only one in North America per year on average, small pets may be at risk.  The Lincoln Park Zoo notes that coyotes are helpful to Chicago by eating rabbits and geese that would otherwise overpopulate the area.

Source: Chicago Tribune

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Upcoming Events

3/11 – CPI

3/12 – Notable Earnings Reports: Ulta Beauty

3/13 – PCE, Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Views are as of the date shown and may change. Forecasts and forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. Information is believed reliable but not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness; third-party sources are not affiliated with Chesley, Taft & Associates (CTA).  Indexes are unmanaged, not investable, and shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Viewing this material does not create an advisory relationship with CTA.