Weekly Market Update – February 9, 2026

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500  (0.1%)  S&P Mid Cap  +4.4%    Russell 2000  +2.2% 

MSCI EAFE +0.5%     MSCI EM (1.4%)   

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – fell from 4.24% to 4.21%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

---

Recent News

Earnings Update – As of Friday, 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 earnings results. The blended earnings growth rate thus far is 13.0% year-over-year, making this the fifth consecutive quarter with a double-digit earnings growth rate if results continue at the current rate. Growth remains above historical averages as the 10-year average earnings growth rate is 9.9%. Companies with over 50% of revenue from outside the U.S. have been supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and posted even better results with annual earnings growth of 17.7%. Analysts are currently forecasting earnings growth to accelerate modestly in 2026 with estimates at 14.1% growth for the full year.

Source: FactSet

India Trade Deal – President Trump agreed to lower tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%, provided that India ceases purchasing Russian oil and lowers their own trade barriers. In his statement on the agreement, Trump alleged that India will purchase over $500 billion of U.S. goods but left out many important details such as when the change to the lower tariff rates will occur and when the deadline for India to halt Russian oil purchases was. The Indian stock market rose on the news.

Source: Thomson Reuters

Japan Election – Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi scored a resounding victory in parliamentary elections over the weekend. Her Liberal Democratic Party and its partner party, the Japan Innovation Party, won 354 of 465 seats in the lower house of Japan’s parliament. Her government now holds over two-thirds majority in the lower house with the Liberal Democratic Party holding the largest-ever majority. Political goals now possible include legislation allowing for defense industry exports and revising the constitution to allow for the formation of a fully-fledged military.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Super Supercenter – Amazon recently submitted plans for a large-format box store in Orland Park with square-footage of 229,000, nearly thirty percent larger than the typical Walmart Supercenter. Despite Amazon’s success in recent years, over 80% of all retail sales still occur in-store and Amazon hopes to gain in the segment. The “first of its kind” store will focus half on groceries, general merchandise, and prepared food with the other half dedicated to online and in-store order fulfillment. Amazon noted that the store will likely not open until late-2027 at the earliest.

Source: CNBC.com, The Wall Street Journal

---

Upcoming Events

2/10 – Retail Sales, Notable Earnings Reports: Masco, Ecolab, Fiserv, Coca-Cola, Ford, Gilead Sciences

2/11 – Jobs Report, Notable Earnings Reports: Kraft Heinz, Cisco, Equinix, Applovin

2/12 – Notable Earnings Reports: CBRE, Zoetis, Applied Materials, Expedia, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Airbnb

2/13 - CPI

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Views are as of the date shown and may change. Forecasts and forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. Information is believed reliable but not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness; third-party sources are not affiliated with Chesley, Taft & Associates (CTA).  Indexes are unmanaged, not investable, and shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Viewing this material does not create an advisory relationship with CTA.