Weekly Market Update – September 22, 2025

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 +1.2%   S&P Mid Cap +0.1%    Russell 2000 +2.2%   

MSCI EAFE (0.2%)    MSCI EM +1.2%  

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.06% to 4.14%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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Recent News

Fed Lowers Rates – For the first time this year, the Federal Reserve chose to adjust interest rates.  The U.S. central bank lowered rates by 0.25% to the 4.00-4.25% range.  Eleven members voted for the action with one dissent from newly confirmed Fed Governor, Stephen Miran.  Miran preferred to lower rates by 0.50%.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that going forward “it’s not incredibly obvious what to do,” and future changes will be assessed on a “meeting-by-meeting situation.”  The probability for a cut at the next meeting in October stood at approximately 90% as of Monday.

Source: Thomson Reuters, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

New Fed Projections - Alongside the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates came new projections on interest rates and the economy from Federal Open Market Committee participants.  The median estimate for growth in GDP for 2025 was revised higher from 1.4% to 1.6% while the estimate for core inflation remained the same at 3.1%.  Expectations for interest rate levels over the next three years were adjusted lower by 0.2% to 0.3%.  One projection, which most have attributed to Stephen Miran, estimates interest rates to be under 3% by the end of the year, 75 basis points below that of the next lowest projection.

Source: Thomson Reuters, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

New Fed Governor – The Senate voted to confirm Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board with a vote of 48-47.  Miran has indicated that he will keep his position as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers becoming the first official from the executive branch to sit on the board of the Fed in nearly 100 years.  Miran’s term ends in January and he plans to take unpaid leave from his job at the White House until that time.  Economists fear that Miran’s dual-roles could diminish the perception that the Fed remains independent from the White House and may lead to higher inflation and cost of debt.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

The Sun Sets on the Sundance Kid – Robert Redford passed away at the age of 89 at his home in the mountains of Utah.  Redford broke onto the scene in 1969 with his role in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and continued with a series of hit films in the 70’s, including The Sting and All the President’s Men.  Despite his stardom as an actor, he continued to seek new challenges, winning an Oscar with his directorial debut for the film Ordinary People.  He would then launch the Sundance Film Festival to help promote careers of independent filmmakers such as the Coen brothers and Quentin Tarantino.  Similar to how he started his career, Redford’s last leading role would be playing a bank robber, Forrest Tucker, in the film The Old Man & the Gun.  In the film, Tucker’s attorney asked him why he couldn’t find an easier way to make a living and he responded, “Brother, I’m not talking about making a living.  I’m just talking about…living.”

Source: Rolling Stone, IMDB

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Upcoming Events

9/23 – Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: AutoZone

9/25 – GDP, Durable Goods, Notable Earnings Reports: Accenture, Costco

9/26 – PCE         

Source: Refinitiv Eikon