Weekly Market Update – October 6, 2025

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 +1.1%   S&P Mid Cap +0.7%  Russell 2000 +1.7% 

MSCI EAFE +2.5%    MSCI EM +3.6%

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – fell from 4.19% to 4.12%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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Recent News

Government Shutdown – A nationwide shutdown of the federal government began on Wednesday as politicians were unable to agree to a spending deal.  Unlike past shutdowns, Congress has not passed any appropriations bills to allow for government offices to remain open during the shutdown.  The Social Security Administration and FEMA will keep some staff on hand but Transportation Security Administration employees will have to work without pay.  Many TSA employees chose not to report to work during past shutdowns causing delays at some airports.  Federal employees that are furloughed during the shutdown will not receive any back pay, unlike past shutdowns.  There have been 15 shutdowns since 1981 with the longest lasting 35 days during President Trump’s first term.  Historically, the stock market has treated past shutdowns as non-events and posted modestly positive returns during a shutdown.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Thomson Reuters

ADP Employment Report – Sep: -32k (Reuters Poll est. 50k) Aug: -3k

More jobs were lost than added during the month of September according to the ADP Employment Report.  This result was far lower than economist expectations of a gain of 50k jobs.  This was also just the second time in the last three years that the ADP report showed net job losses in the first estimate report.  Eight of the last eleven reports have now shown job declines versus the previous month.  The federal employment report was due on Friday but has been delayed due to the government shutdown.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Thomson Reuters

New Japanese Leader – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party elected a new leader, selecting Sanae Takaichi to replace outgoing Prime Minister Ishiba.  Should Takaichi win in the upcoming general election, she would be the first female Prime Minister in the history of Japan. 

Source: Thomson Reuters

The First “Howl” – On October 7, 1955, a young Allen Ginsberg first read his new poem, “Howl.”  The poem would go on to sell nearly one million copies and is often credited with launching the Beat Generation of poets.  Jack Kerouac and Lawrence Ferlinghetti were also in the audience that night cheering on Ginsberg.  Ferlinghetti would telegram Ginsberg later that evening offering to buy the poem, stating “I greet you at the beginning of a great career.  When do I get the manuscript,” the same line that Ralph Waldo Emerson would write to Walt Whitman after first reading “Leaves of Grass.”

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

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Upcoming Events

10/6 – Notable Earnings Reports: Constellation Brands

10/8 – Fed Minutes

10/9 – Notable Earnings Reports: Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo

10/10 – Consumer Sentiment

Source: Refinitiv Eikon