Weekly Market Update – June 30, 2025

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 +3.5% S&P Mid Cap +2.6% Russell 2000 +3.0%

MSCI EAFE +3.1% MSCI EM +3.4%

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – fell from 4.38% to 4.28%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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Recent News

Israel-Iran Cease Fire – President Trump announced on Monday that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire.  Stock futures rose modestly, and oil prices dropped after the announcement.

Source: Thomson Reuters

New High – The S&P 500 hit new highs on Friday for the first time since February.  The index is up 23% from the lows of April and 4.9% from the start of the year.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Refinitiv Eikon

Bank Stress Test Results – The Federal Reserve posted results that showed all twenty-two of the largest U.S. banks have sufficient capital to weather a severe economic downturn.  The stress test called for a drop in commercial real estate prices of 30% and home prices of 33% alongside an increase in the unemployment rate to 10%.  On average, the capital ratio of all banks declined roughly 2% to 11.6%, far higher than the 4.5% requirement.  With the results finalized, banks are expected to announce new capital return policies in the coming days.

Source: Thomson Reuters

Core PCE – May: 0.2% (Reuters Poll est. 0.1%) Apr: 0.1%

Core inflation edged slightly higher in May compared to the previous month and was slightly above economists expectations.  The year-over-year change in core inflation was reported at 2.7%.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

Q1 GDP Revised Estimate – Q1: -0.5% (Reuters Poll est. -0.2%) Q4: 2.4%

First quarter real GDP was revised lower, from -0.2% to -0.5%.  It was noted that the decline in growth can primarily be attributed to a surge in imports during Q1, which subtracts from growth.  Consumer spending remained positive in the quarter.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Born in Chicago – Seeking a way to promote the World’s Fair in his town of Chicago, Mayor Ed Kelly asked Chicago Tribune editor Colonel Robert McCormick if they could host a sporting event at the same time as the fair.  McCormick passed the idea off to his sports editor Arch Ward and he conceived of the idea of the MLB All-Star game.  The first game took place on July 6, 1933 at Comiskey Park and featured Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Al Simmons with Ruth hitting a home run to win it for the American League.

Source: National Baseball Hall of Fame

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Upcoming Events

7/1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: Constellation Brands

7/3 – Jobs Report, ISM Services PMI

Source: Refinitiv Eikon