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Weekly Market Update – June 17, 2024

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 1.6% S&P Mid Cap (0.9%) Russell 2000 (1.0%) MSCI EAFE (2.6%) MSCI EM +0.4%

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – fell from 4.43% to 4.21%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

 

Recent News


Core CPI – May: 0.2% (Reuters Poll est. 0.3%) April: 0.3%

The month-over-month change in Core CPI rose just 0.2% in May, the lowest reading since July 2023.  Declines in airline fares and new car prices were contributing factors to the lower reading.  The odds of an interest cut in September jumped nearly 20% after the report and stocks surged. 

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, The Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics


FOMC Meeting – As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of their meeting on June 12.  In contrast to previous projections, policymakers anticipate just one interest rate cut in 2024.  However, many economists have viewed the projections as stale almost immediately upon arrival because of new lower CPI data released just hours before the Fed projections were made official.  In response to the new CPI report, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “we welcome today’s reading and then hope for more like that.”

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Thomson Reuters, Barron’s


IEA Report – The International Energy Agency estimates that the world will reach peak oil demand by 2030 due to the expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles and a slowdown in demand from China.  Given the increased investment in adding supply, they forecast 8 million barrels per day of excess capacity at the end of the decade.

Source: The Financial Times


Core PPI – May: 0.0% (Reuters Poll est. 0.3%) April: 0.5%

The PPI report, which measures wholesale prices that businesses pay, came in lower than expected.  The data from this report is helpful when predicting what the PCE report at the end of the month will show, leading economists to anticipate a lower PCE reading than previously estimated.

Source: CNBC.com


House of the Dragon – The hit HBO series began its second season this weekend after a two-year hiatus.  The season one premiere was watched by nearly 10 million viewers making it the most-watched series premiere in HBO history.  While the show is based on author George R. R. Martin’s fantasy novel, Fire and Blood, Martin stole ideas from real life events that took place in the 12th century when King Henry I’s daughter fought for the throne with her cousin, Stephen.

Source: Men’s Health

 

Upcoming Events


6/18 – Retail Sales


6/20 – Housing Starts, Notable Earnings Reports: Accenture, Darden Restaurants, Kroger

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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