Weekly Market Update – June 16, 2025

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 (0.4%) S&P Mid Cap (1.5%) Russell 2000 (1.5%)

MSCI EAFE (0.2%) MSCI EM +0.8%

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – fell from 4.51% to 4.42%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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Recent News

Middle East Conflict – Israel launched an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities and military in an effort to prevent Iran from building nuclear bombs.  Israel claims to have received intelligence that Iran was within days of having enough nuclear material to build a bomb, which prompted the attacks.  Iran responded with its own attacks against Israel.  In response to the attacks, oil rose 7% and the S&P 500 declined 1%.  Gold rose 1.5% and Treasury bonds fell with some betting that higher oil prices could make it harder for the Fed to lower rates this year.

Source: Thomson Reuters, The Wall Street Journal

US-China Trade Talks – Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the U.S. and China “have reached a handshake for a framework” of a trade deal.  The proposed deal would largely restore the terms of the previous agreement reached in May.  Of particular concern for the U.S. was China approving rare-earth mineral and magnet shipments more expeditiously, while China wanted to retain access to American jet engines and semiconductor chips.  President Trump posted on Truth Social that tariffs on Chinese imports will be 55% compared to tariffs on American exports to China at 10%.  The full details of the agreement have yet to be released.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Core CPI – May: 0.1% (Reuters Poll est. 0.3%) Apr: 0.2%

Core inflation was reported below expectations in May with economists wondering how much the increased tariff rates impacted prices.  Many still anticipate prices to increase in the months ahead as the full impact of tariffs are included and old inventory rolls off shelves.  Expectations for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week remain low with most targeting September for the next reduction.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Thomson Reuters

Anguilla Intelligence – An unlikely beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom has been the Caribbean island of Anguilla.  Anguilla holds the rights to all “.ai” domain names and has seen a surge in demand for these domains since the launch of ChatGPT.  Anguilla domain registrations topped 350,000 in 2023 bringing in over $30 million in revenue for the island, representing approximately 20% of the government’s total revenue.

Source: International Monetary Fund

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Upcoming Events

6/17 – Retail Sales

6/18 – Fed Meeting

6/20 – Notable Earnings Reports: Kroger. Accenture, Darden Restaurants

Source: Refinitiv Eikon