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Weekly Market Update – October 20, 2025

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 +1.7%   S&P Mid Cap  +2.0%     Russell 2000  +2.4%   

MSCI EAFE  +0.7%       MSCI EM  (0.3%)  

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – fell from 4.05% to 4.01%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

Recent News


Banks Stocks Fall – The KBW Regional Banking Index fell 2% during the course of the week as surprise bankruptcies from two auto-related companies caused losses in several banks.  Additional concerns at a private equity firm caused losses at two separate regional banks.  Poor underwriting and potential loan fraud appear to be primary culprits with the recent lending concerns as opposed to economic decline.  However, after JPMorgan took a $170 million charge-off related to an auto lender, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Morgan Stanley


Government Shutdown Continues – The government shutdown enters its fourth week as Congress appears at a standstill.  Prediction markets show an increasing likelihood that the shutdown continues into mid-November, potentially threatening Thanksgiving travel plans.  Meanwhile, a US judge rules that the Trump administration must pause the firing of thousands of federal workers during the shutdown until a decision is reached regarding a lawsuit between several labor unions and over two dozen federal agencies.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, Bloomberg


Treasury Rates Fall - For the first time since April, the 10-year Treasury Rate fell below 4%.  Concerns over tariffs, bad loans, and the ongoing government shutdown appear to be factors causing the flight to quality.  In addition, the 2-year Treasury Rate fell to 3.41%, its lowest level since September 2022.

Source: CNBC.com


Let It Snow – The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2025-26 winter weather outlook.  Due to the ongoing La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean, they forecast greater than average snowfall for the Chicago area to be accompanied with average-temperatures.  Typically, Chicago receives approximately 30 inches of snow each winter.

Upcoming Events


10/21 – Notable Earnings Reports: GM, Danaher, GE, Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Pultegroup, RTX, 3M, Chubb, Capital One, Texas Instruments, Netflix


10/22 – Notable Earnings Reports: Amphenol, AT&T, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Northern Trust, IBM, Tesla


10/23 – Notable Earnings Reports: Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Blackstone, CBRE, Southwest Airlines, T-Mobile, Pool Corp, Tractor Supply, Valero Energy, Deckers Outdoor, Intel, Mohawk, Ford


10/24 – CPI, S&P Manufacturing PMI, S&P Services PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: Illinois Tool Works, Procter & Gamble

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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