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Weekly Market Update – July 1, 2024

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 (0.1%) S&P Mid Cap (0.1%) Russell 2000 +1.3% MSCI EAFE +0.3% MSCI EM (0.1%)

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.26% to 4.34%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon


Recent News

First Half – The S&P 500 returned 15.3% in the first half of 2024.  Far above the first half historical average return of 4.7%.  It was the best first half of an election year in nearly fifty years.  The communications and technology sectors were the best performing sectors to start the year while the real estate sector was the worst performing sector.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Morningstar

Core PCE Inflation – May: 0.1% (Reuters Poll est. 0.1%) April: 0.3%

Core inflation in May increased just 0.1% versus the prior month and 2.6% versus the prior year.  The year-over-year change is the lowest reported since March 2021.  This was in-line with economist estimates and market expectations remain for an interest rate cut to occur in September.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Thomson Reuters

Chevron Deference – The Supreme Court overturned the 1984 legal precedent referred to as the “Chevron deference.”  Ending the deference significantly weakens the powers of federal agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency, to set rules and puts the onus on Congress to explicitly detail regulatory powers while drafting legislation.

Source: BBC

GDP – Q1: 1.4% (Reuters Poll est. 1.3%) Q4: 3.4%

The final estimate for Q1 GDP was reported slightly above expectations but still notably lower than the prior quarter.  The Atlanta Fed estimates that Q2 GDP will increase to 2.2% based on available economic data through last week.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

A New SEC – Texas and Oklahoma depart the Big 12 to become the fifteenth and sixteenth members of the Southeastern Conference.  Over the last 25 years, the two schools won 18 Big 12 football titles between the two of them.  However, since the start of the College Football Playoff in 2014, Big 12 schools have only won the national championship twice compared to the SEC at six victories.



Upcoming Events

7/1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI

7/2 – JOLTS Job Openings, Fed Chair Jay Powell Speech

7/3 – FOMC Minutes, ADP National Employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: Constellation Brands

7/4 – UK Election

7/5 – Jobs Report

Source: Refinitiv Eikon


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