Weekly Market Update – October 5, 2026
Price Return Last Week
S&P 500 (0.2%) S&P Mid Cap 0.6% Russell 2000 (0.2%)
MSCI EAFE (1.7%) MSCI EM (1.4%)
10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 5.18% to 5.28%
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Recent News
Jobs Report – Sep: 29k (Reuters Poll est. 90k) Aug: 133k
The number of jobs added in September surprised all economists coming in below the lowest estimate. The number of jobs added in August was also revised lower, from 162,000 to 133,000, suggesting a weakening in the labor force over the last two months. Subsequent to the report, bond and stock prices rose and the odds of a hike at the next Fed meeting declined according to market-based metrics.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, The Wall Street Journal
Real GDP – Q2: 2.2% (Reuters Poll est. 1.5%) Q1: 1.5%
Real GDP growth for the second quarter was reported at 2.2%, well above the previous estimate of 1.5%, and offered evidence of a steady economy. Higher consumer spending and investment were key contributors to the higher-than-expected report.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Core PCE – Aug: 0.2% (Reuters Poll est. 0.3%) Jul: 0.1%
In welcome news for the Federal Reserve, core inflation was reported below expectations for August and the previous month’s inflation estimate was lowered as well. However, core inflation remains above target on a year-over-year basis at 3.0%. Subsequent to the inflation report, market-based indicators showed the odds of a rate increase at the next Fed meeting to fall to 35% from 52%.
Source: Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv Eikon
Dollar Strengthens – The US dollar rose versus the euro to $1.13 on Tuesday, hitting the highest level in 16 months. Higher relative interest rates in the U.S. versus Europe and rising energy costs in Europe have attributed to the recent decline in the value of the euro.
Source: Thomson Reuters
The Next Big Idea – In an effort to foster innovation and creativity, World Business Chicago started an open competition to ask visionaries from around the world what Chicago’s next big idea should be. Over 200 entries were received with the organization recently announcing winning ideas from Morton Arboretum and urban planning firm MKSK. Both ideas chose to emphasize the city’s official motto Urbs in Horto (“city in a garden”) to expand the green space in the city by leveraging the existing city boulevards and neighborhoods to build additional green infrastructure to connect communities, cool neighborhoods, and manage stormwater.
Source: World Business Chicago
Upcoming Events
10/5 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
10/6 – Notable Earnings Reports: Constellation Brands
10/8 – Notable Earnings Reports: PepsiCo
10/9 – Consumer Sentiment, Notable Earnings Reports: Delta Air Lines
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Disclosure
This material, including references to specific securities, is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Views are as of the date shown and may change. Forecasts and forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. Information is believed reliable but not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness; third-party sources are not affiliated with Chesley, Taft & Associates (CTA). Indexes are unmanaged, not investable, do not reflect fees or expenses, and shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Viewing this material does not create an advisory relationship with CTA.
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