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Weekly Market Update – January 2, 2024

Price Return Last Year

S&P 500 +24.2% S&P Mid Cap +14.5% Russell 2000 +15.1%

MSCI EAFE +15.0% MSCI EM +7.0%

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 3.83% to 3.86%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

 

Market/Economic Data

Nasdaq Surges – The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 53.8% in 2023, the largest increase in the index since 1999 when it rose an astonishing 102%.  Despite the increase this year, the index has only grown 3% since the beginning of 2022.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Benzinga


The Magnificent 7 – The seven largest companies in the S&P 500 had an average total return of 111% in 2023 and were responsible for approximately two-thirds of the return for the S&P 500 during 2023.  It is estimated that these seven companies increased earnings by 40% during the year against a modest decline in earnings for the overall S&P 500 index at approximately (3%).



10-Year Treasury’s Wild Ride – While the 10-Year US Treasury Rate increased only 3 basis points on the year, this masked the roller coaster ride that bond investors endured.  For the first time since 2007, 10-Year rates hit 5.02% in October, only to fall in seven of the next ten weeks and finish the year 116 basis points below its October peak at 3.86%.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon


Inflation Cut In Half – The year-over-year change in CPI started the year at 6.5% but dropped to just 3.1% as of the most recent report.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor


60/40 Portfolio – A 60/40 portfolio returned 18% during 2023.  The best return for the portfolio since 2019 and the fourth best return in the last twenty years.  A sharp contrast to the negative 16% return seen in 2022.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management


A New New Year’s Tradition – The NCAA will abandon its 4-team college football playoff for a 12-team college football playoff next season.  Since the start of the format in 2014, fifteen schools have appeared but only five have gone on to win a title with two-thirds of national title winners hailing from the Southeastern Conference.

Source: NCAA.com

 

Upcoming Events

1/3 – ISM Manufacturing Index, JOLTS, FOMC Minutes


1/4 – Notable Earnings Reports: Walgreens Boots Alliance


1/5 – Nonfarm Payrolls, Notable Earnings Reports: Constellation Brands

Source: Refinitiv Eikon


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