How Can It Be?

The second quarter of 2025 has just ended.  It was marked by stock market volatility, war, political division, a weak dollar, tariffs, international discord, higher oil prices, inflation, fiscal deficit concerns and a great deal of uncertainty.  Historically, any one of these factors could have been enough to send stocks in a tailspin, yet the U. S. Stock market ended the quarter at an all-time high.  How can it be?

Stepping back and taking an objective look (albeit with hindsight), it is not so mysterious.  Given all the issues mentioned above, when taken as a group, investors have decided that stocks offer the best place to have money invested for the long term.  It seems rational that investing in well managed businesses that can cope with uncertainty and change would be an attractive investment in the current environment.  The alternative of cash and fixed income appear less attractive given concerns for inflation, fiscal deficits and a weak dollar.  Other options such as real estate, gold or commodities offer inflation hedges but lack either cash flow or liquidity. So, stocks win.

However, price should not be ignored.  With the stock market at an all-time high value is harder to find, and discipline is required.  We have always believed that investing in well-managed businesses providing necessary goods and services at a fair price will be rewarding.  We will continue that strategy as part of a balanced portfolio.

As always, I welcome your comments or questions.

Best regards,

Bill