Weekly Market Update – November 3, 2025

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 +0.7%   S&P Mid Cap  (1.6%)    Russell 2000   (1.4%)   

MSCI EAFE   (0.5%)      MSCI EM +0.9%   

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.01% to 4.10%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

---

Recent News

Fed Meeting – As widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday.  Ten of the twelve voters voted for the measure with a dissent from newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.  Miran voted for a larger rate cut and Schmid voted for no change due to ongoing inflation concerns.  This represented just the third time since 1990 that there were dissents in both directions.  It was also decided that the Fed would end its balance sheet drawdown and use the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities to purchase Treasury bills.

Source: Thomson Reuters

Fed Commentary – Following the interest rate vote, Fed officials bemoaned the lack of official economic data available to them due to the government shutdown.  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also remarked that there was a “growing chorus” of members that felt they should wait a cycle before cutting rates again.  Reiterating his point, he noted that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion.”  Odds of a cut in December fell following Powell’s comments but remain over 60% as of Monday morning.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Thomson Reuters

U.S. Meets with China – Following a long in-person meeting between President Trump and President Xi,  it was announced that Trump will not implement additional tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods and China will allow for rare earth minerals to continue to be exported to the United States.  China also agreed to crack down on illegal fentanyl trade and increase purchases of U.S. soybeans.  China still has not completed the purchase agreements that it made during Trump’s first term, leaving trade analysts wondering if the same will occur this time.

Source: Thomson Reuters

A Baseball Omen – Only twice in history has a World Series game lasted at least 18 innings, Game 3 in 2018 and Game 3 in 2025.  Both games ended with a walk-off win by the Los Angeles Dodgers and both happened to occur after Brad Paisley sang the national anthem.  In fact, in all four occasions where Paisley performed the national anthem at the World Series, the game ended in extra innings.  When asked about his history with the national anthem, Paisley remarked “I just want to get the words right.  I had no idea that there would be cosmic ramifications.”

Source: Variety

---

Upcoming Events

11/3 – ISM Manufacturing PMI, S&P Manufacturing PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Palantir

11/4 – Notable Earnings Reports: Marriott, Exelon, Pfizer, Waters, Yum! Brands, Apollo, Zoetis, CDW, Uber, Aflac, AIG, AMD, Amgen, Arista Networks, Match Group

11/5 – ADP Employment Report, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, S&P Services PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: McDonald’s, Bunge, Albemarle, MetLife, Qualcomm, DoorDash, Applovin, Allstate

11/6 – Notable Earnings Reports: DuPont, Air Products and Chemicals, Becton Dickinson, Warner Bros Discovery, ConocoPhillips, Vistra, Expedia, Airbnb, Monster Beverage

11/7 – Jobs Report, Consumer Sentiment, Notable Earnings Reports: KKR, Constellation Energy

Source: Refinitiv Eikon