Weekly Market Update – March 31, 2025

Price Return Last Week

S&P 500 (1.5%) S&P Mid Cap (1.0%) Russell 2000 (1.6%)

MSCI EAFE (1.0%) MSCI EM (0.9%)

10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.25% to 4.26%

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

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Recent News

Auto Tariffs – The Trump Administration announced that all vehicles imported into the U.S. will see a 25% tariff starting on April 3.  Auto parts that are compliant with the existing U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement will not be subject to tariffs for the time being.  American automakers GM, Stellantis, and Ford traded down on the following day while Tesla saw a slight gain.  Most foreign automakers also saw slight declines in stock prices and most auto parts retailers saw their stock prices increase as consumers may wait longer to buy a new car.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Refinitiv Eikon

Core PCE – Feb: 0.4% (Reuters Poll est. 0.3%) Jan: 0.3%

Core inflation rose by 0.4% month-over-month, the biggest gain since January 2024.  For the last twelve months, core inflation increased 2.8%, slightly higher than January.

Source: Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv Eikon

Inflation Expectations – The University of Michigan reported that one-year inflation expectations surged in March from 4.3% to 5.0%, the highest estimate since 2022.  Five-year inflation expectations saw a jump as well, increasing from 3.5% to 4.1%, representing the highest reading since 1993.

Source: Thomson Reuters

Consumer Confidence – Mar: 92.9 (Reuters Poll est. 94.0) Feb: 100.1

Overall U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since January 2021 and future expectations for the economy fell to the lowest in over 12 years.  This was the fourth consecutive decline for the index.  While the drop was mostly widespread, confidence remained stable among consumers under 35 years of age and households earning more than $125,000 per year.

Source: Thomson Reuters

Pascua Florida – Most historians consider April 3, 1513 the first time Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de Leon set foot on land in what is now known as Florida.  Prior to landing, Florida had been known as Bimini, but Ponce de Leon changed the name to Florida to celebrate the Easter feast, Pascua Florida, which was occurring at the time of his arrival.

Source: History.com, The Miami Herald

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Upcoming Events

4/1 – Manufacturing PMI

4/2 – Trump Administration Tariff Announcement

4/3 – Non-Manufacturing PMI, Notable Earnings Reports: Exxon Mobil

4/4 – Jobs Report

Source: Refinitiv Eikon