Price Return Last Week
S&P 500 (0.4%) S&P Mid Cap +0.7% Russell 2000 +1.1%
MSCI EAFE +1.4% MSCI EM +2.1%
10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.19% to 4.30%
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Recent News
Core CPI – January: 0.4% (Reuters Poll est. 0.3%) December: 0.3%
The year-over-year change in Core CPI remained the same as the previous month at 3.9%. Odds of the Fed making a cut to interest rates in May fell following the report. June is now expected to be the first time rates are cut this cycle. The S&P 500 fell 1.4% on the day of the report, making it the worst trading session on a CPI release day since 2022. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, noted in a closed-door meeting that the report was “consistent with what they had been anticipating.”
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Politico
Retail Sales – January: -0.8% (Reuters Poll est. -0.1%) December: 0.6%
Most consumers pull back on spending in January and the Commerce Department adjusts the reported values for these seasonal changes but it can be difficult to get the adjustments just right and it makes this report harder to understand the underlying trends. It’s also likely that bad weather during the month caused a decline in sales activity.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, The Wall Street Journal
Nikkei Hits Record – The Japanese stock market index broached 37,000 to set a new record for the first time in 34 years.
Source: CNBC
This Investment Stinks – The national average price for recycled cardboard or old corrugated containers (OCC) has tripled over the last year from $29/ton to $87/ton. Some mills even pay a premium for cardboard that is cleaner or more carefully sorted with prices on the West Coast rising to as high as $190/ton. As cardboard production increases this year, it is estimated that prices will start to fall.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Upcoming Events
2/20 – Notable Earnings Reports: Home Depot, Medtronic, Walmart, Palo Alto Networks
2/21 – Fed Minutes, Notable Earnings Reports: Exelon, NVIDIA
2/22 – Existing Home Sales, Notable Earnings Reports: Keurig Dr. Pepper, Copart, Booking, VICI Properties, Intuit
Source: Refinitiv Eikon