Price Return Last Week
S&P 500 (1.6%) S&P Mid Cap (3.0%) Russell 2000 (2.9%)
MSCI EAFE (1.2%) MSCI EM (0.4%)
10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.38% to 4.50%
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Recent News
Strike on Israel – For the first time ever, Iran launched a direct military attack on Israel from their soil. Approximately 300 drones and missiles were launched from Iran on Saturday. Nearly all were intercepted with only minor damage reported.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Core CPI – March: 0.4% (Reuters Poll est. 0.3%) February: 0.4%
The March CPI report came in above estimates for the third month in a row. Services inflation less energy remains stubbornly high at 5.4% year-over-year. Core CPI over the last twelve months has risen 3.8%, the same as the previous month. Subsequent to the report, the S&P 500 fell 1% and the odds of an interest cut in June fell below 50%. The market now anticipates just 2 cuts this year.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Wall Street Journal
Fed Minutes – Minutes from the Fed’s meeting in March showed some concern among participants about the “persistence of high inflation.” Some officials noted that housing inflation could begin to slow and productivity may increase, providing downward pressure on inflation. However, the “recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%.”
Source: Thomson Reuters
ECB Meeting – The European Central Bank chose not to change interest rates but noted that it would be “appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction” if new data shows moderate inflation. Analysts note that this could mean the ECB cuts rates before the Fed.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
The Masters – For the second time in the last three years, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters golf tournament. Scheffler often credits his wife, Meredith, with providing a calming influence on him before his last round in 2022 that helped propel him to victory. However, Meredith couldn’t make this trip as she was just a few weeks away from giving birth. Scheffler said all week that he was ready to withdraw if he got a call that his wife was going into labor.
Source: CBS Sports
Upcoming Events
4/15 – Tax Day, Retail Sales, Notable Earnings Reports: Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab
4/16 – Housing Starts, Notable Earnings Reports: Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, United Healthcare, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, United Airlines
4/17 – Notable Earnings Reports: Abbott Laboratories, US Bancorp, Alcoa
4/18 – Existing Home Sales, Notable Earnings Reports: Blackstone, DR Horton, Netflix
4/19 – Notable Earnings Reports: American Express, Procter & Gamble, Schlumberger
Source: Refinitiv Eikon